KEY TAKEAWAYS
On February 11, 1990, at the Tokyo Dome, James “Buster” Douglas knocked out Mike Tyson, the undefeated, undisputed heavyweight champion, in the 10th round. In the United States the fight took place on February 10 because of the time difference. In Las Vegas, one sportsbook had posted a price on the winner, and its final number, 42-1 against Douglas, became a figure the Associated Press says remains part of sports betting folklore. This article is the story of that line: how bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro set it at the Mirage, who bet what, how the odds work when converted into dollars and probabilities, and where the accounts of the night disagree. It is a history of one wager and one odds board, not a guide to betting, and the many bettors who backed the champion are part of the story.
The Fight and the Sportsbook
Mike Tyson arrived in Tokyo as a champion the Review-Journal says was widely regarded as unbeatable. According to the same report, Tyson was 37-0 with 33 knockouts and had beaten undefeated former champion Michael Spinks in 91 seconds two fights earlier. Douglas was 28-4-1 and, by the Review-Journal’s account, was not considered much of a threat. Douglas fought three weeks after the death of his mother, the report adds.
The betting side of the story begins at the Mirage, the Las Vegas resort whose sportsbook Vaccaro ran. The Associated Press columnist Tim Dahlberg wrote that the resort, built by Steve Wynn, had opened just three months earlier. Vaccaro told the Japan Times that he was the only bookmaker to post odds on the fight. Other books booking Tyson fights, he said, offered only a round proposition, a bet on how long a fight would last, and Action Network’s Darren Rovell reports the same, adding that the most popular bet across Las Vegas was for Tyson to end the fight in the second or third round. A 2015 Guardian retrospective says most bookmakers refused to take bets on the fight and that the Mirage was the only casino willing to offer odds.
Vaccaro explained his reasoning to the Japan Times: a straight-up price could draw action on both sides. He told Rovell that as Tyson kept winning, the underdogs in his fights had gone from 6-1 to 8-1, and that offering a price at all was beginning to look pointless. He also had the authority to move the number himself without checking with executives, Rovell reports.
Making the Line: 27-1 to 42-1
Vaccaro opened the fight at 27-1, according to the Associated Press and the Review-Journal. BoxRec’s wiki quotes him saying his first instinct was 12-1 and that he went to 27-1 because he feared being hit hard by Tyson money. The first big bet came quickly. The Review-Journal and the Associated Press say a customer bet $54,000 to win $2,000 on Tyson, and the Review-Journal places it about two hours after the line went up, while the Associated Press says the next day. The Japan Times quotes Vaccaro describing a first bet of $81,000 to win $3,000 instead.
More wagers followed and the number rose. Vaccaro recalled to the Japan Times moving to 32-1 after a bet of about $93,000 to win $3,000, and Rovell’s version has the line at 31-1 for that bet. The Associated Press quotes Vaccaro as saying he had never seen so many people lay such a big price on anything, and the same column says the number went to 37-1 and then to its final level. According to BoxRec’s wiki, he moved to 42-1 about three weeks before the fight and it stayed there on fight night.
The largest bet is reported consistently. Vaccaro told the Review-Journal that when the line reached its peak a bettor he knew from California, who had beaten him on every fight over the previous ten years, laid 42-1, betting $168,000 on Tyson to win $4,000. On the other side, Vaccaro said the biggest wager on Douglas was $1,500, which the Review-Journal records as at 37-1 for a $55,500 win, and the Japan Times and Rovell record as at 38-1 for a $57,000 win. Rovell adds that Vaccaro offered Douglas at 42-1 but that no bet was ever made on him at that price.
Fight Night in Tokyo
The fight itself is documented in the Review-Journal and on BoxRec’s wiki. Douglas controlled most of the bout, working behind a strong jab, and BoxRec’s wiki says Tyson’s left eye began to swell by the fifth round. With six seconds left in the eighth round, Tyson knocked Douglas down with a right uppercut, and Douglas got up at the count of nine. Douglas then regained control, and in the tenth round he put Tyson down with a combination. BoxRec’s wiki lists the end of the fight as a knockout at 1:23 of round 10 and records referee Octavio Meyran stopping it.
Back at the Mirage the fight was not on a screen. The Review-Journal says it was broadcast on HBO and the sportsbook followed round-by-round updates on a ticker, while Rovell quotes Vaccaro saying the book did not have the broadcast and watched updates on ESPN. When the result arrived, Vaccaro told the Review-Journal that he told staff not to post it because it had to be wrong, and the Las Vegas Sun quotes him saying he did not want to end up paying both sides. Rovell reports that the book did not pay out Douglas bettors for at least an hour. The official news arrived about half an hour later, according to the Associated Press.
What 42-1 Actually Means
Odds written as 42-1 mean a winning bet profits 42 times the stake. The arithmetic below uses the formulas in standard fractional-odds notation and shows what the number meant for Tyson’s backers and for anyone who bet on Douglas.
$100 at 42-1: profit $4,200, total return $4,300, implied probability 1 ÷ 43 ≈ 2.33%
The same line viewed from Tyson’s side is 1-42, also written as -4200: a bettor had to risk $4,200 to win $100, according to the Review-Journal. That price implies Tyson was a 4,200 ÷ 4,300, or about 97.67 percent, favorite, which together with Douglas’s 2.33 percent adds up to 100 percent; the sources do not say what margin, if any, the book built in. The reported bets are all consistent with their prices. A bet of $54,000 at 27-1 wins $2,000, $81,000 at 27-1 wins $3,000, $93,000 at 31-1 wins $3,000 and $168,000 at 42-1 wins $4,000. On Douglas, $1,500 at 37-1 wins $55,500 and at 38-1 wins $57,000.
The arithmetic also shows the risk the favorite’s backers took. The $168,000 bettor stood to gain $4,000 and lose $168,000, a ratio of 42 to 1 in the wrong direction. Vaccaro told the Japan Times that by adjusting the numbers he reached a position in which the book would win about $104,000 if Tyson lost and about $3,000 if Tyson won, which he described as no risk in the outcome. That figure is his own recollection and is not confirmed by the other sources.
Aftermath: The Book, the Belts and the Film
The Mirage book came out ahead. The Review-Journal and the Associated Press both put the win at about $300,000, because so much money had been laid on Tyson, while Rovell quotes Vaccaro at about $400,000 on roughly $13 million booked. The publicity was larger than the profit, Vaccaro told Rovell, since media from around the world called the casino for its reaction and it was the only book that had considered Douglas winning. Some small bettors won at the Mirage as well, the Associated Press notes.
The result also had consequences outside Nevada. BoxRec’s wiki reports that promoter Don King tried to have the result voided, claiming Douglas had been given a long count after the knockdown in the eighth round, and that the sanctioning bodies announced on February 13 that they would recognize Douglas as champion. The same wiki says Douglas signed to make his first defense at the Mirage against Evander Holyfield. The Review-Journal adds that the 42-1 number became the title of an ESPN documentary on the fight.
The Associated Press column described 42-1 as a number that remains part of betting folklore, and the Review-Journal calls the fight one of the greatest upsets in sports history. WagerPast does not draw lessons for today’s markets from it. The story is a historical record of one board, one bookmaker and one night.
Myths, Disputes and the Other Side
The first bet is told in two ways: $54,000 to win $2,000 in the Associated Press, Review-Journal and Rovell accounts, and $81,000 to win $3,000 in the Japan Times interview. Both are valid at 27-1, and they may describe different wagers, but the sources do not say. The best Douglas bet is $1,500 for $55,500 at 37-1 in the Review-Journal and $1,500 for $57,000 at 38-1 in the Japan Times and Rovell.
The line itself is the most repeated legend. Rovell reports that the 42-1 figure was posted but that no one bet Douglas at that price, so a bet at exactly 42-1 on Douglas never happened; the figure applies to what Tyson’s backers laid. Sources also differ on whether all other books refused the fight entirely or offered only round bets, and on the book’s win, about $300,000 or about $400,000. The date is a smaller dispute: the fight was held on a Sunday morning in Tokyo, February 11, which was February 10 in the United States, according to the Review-Journal and BoxRec’s wiki.
The other side of the story is the money lost. Rovell and the Review-Journal report that large bets kept coming in on Tyson even as the price rose, and those bettors lost, one of them, according to Vaccaro, a $168,000 stake to win $4,000. Most of these details come from one bookmaker’s recollections, repeated over thirty years. This article does not present the result as a betting plan, and a single famous win says little about how bets at such odds usually turn out.
Timeline of the Fight and the Line
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| January 18, 1990 | Douglas’s mother dies, about three weeks before the fight (BoxRec’s wiki, Review-Journal) |
| Early February 1990 | Vaccaro opens Douglas at 27-1; first large bet is on Tyson (AP, Review-Journal) |
| About three weeks before the fight | Line moves to 42-1, according to BoxRec’s wiki |
| February 10, 1990 (US time) | Fight night in the United States (Review-Journal) |
| February 11, 1990 (Tokyo) | Douglas knocks Tyson out at 1:23 of round 10 (BoxRec) |
| February 13, 1990 | WBC and WBA announce they will recognize Douglas, per BoxRec’s wiki |
| After the fight | Douglas signs to make his first defense at the Mirage, against Evander Holyfield (BoxRec’s wiki) |
Related Stories
For another famous long shot and the bets placed on it, read the Leicester City 5000-1 title bets. For a very different famous wager, see Ashley Revell’s roulette bet, and to see how Nevada sportsbooks came to exist, read how Nevada’s sportsbooks moved into casinos.
Frequently Asked Questions
Sources & References
- Tim Dahlberg, Associated Press — 42-1, a line that lives in Las Vegas betting lore (February 10, 2020)
- Jim Barnes, Las Vegas Review-Journal — Jimmy Vaccaro remembers frenzy after Buster Douglas’ shocking victory (February 10, 2020)
- Ed Odeven, The Japan Times — Vaccaro was only bookmaker to lay odds on historic fight (February 5, 2015)
- Darren Rovell, Action Network — The huge bets and betting myths from a historic fight (February 11, 2021)
- Paul Campbell, The Guardian — From the Vault: Mike Tyson is knocked out by 42-1 underdog Buster Douglas (2015)
- Las Vegas Sun — 42-1, a line that lives in Las Vegas betting lore (February 11, 2020)
- BoxRec Wiki — Mike Tyson vs. James (Buster) Douglas
